Michael Minson and Danielle Lazier are Bernal neighbors who work by day as local realtors. Their business gives them unique insight into the utterly bonkers San Francisco housing market, and because they’re Bernalese, Neighbor Michael and Neighbor Danielle also pay close attention to the housing market here in Bernal Heights.
Neighbors Michael and Danielle’s executive summary for the first half of 2017 is that home prices in Bernal Heights continue to appreciate at a nosebleed-inducing pace, despite their February prediction that prices may have plateaued.
Bernal’s very limited housing supply, coupled with continuing strong demand, has had a predictable effect on prices. During the first six months of this year, with a total of 94 homes trading hands, the median home price in Bernal Heights has grown by 7%, to $1.46 million. OMFG.
Now let’s hand it over to Neighbors Michael and Danielle, for their full report:
At the beginning of this year, the Bernal home price trend was slowing down, with consistently decreasing year-over-year appreciation since 2013.
Here are median sale prices for homes in Bernal Heights, along with the year-over-year % change for the past 4 years and current half year:
The four-year trend toward decelerating appreciation, coupled with uncertainties after last year’s presidential election, led us to believe home prices had hit a plateau. But that’s not how things worked out. Instead, the trend reversed and started a slight uptick for the first half of this year.
As has happened consistently for the past 5 years, Bernal Heights hit another record high median sale price for single family homes during the first half of the year, clocking in at an astounding $1.458M. That’s a 7% increase over the median price of 2016 when it was $1.363M
74% of houses sold so far in 2017 have been between $1M-$2M.
We’ve had two new entrants to the $3M club – bringing Bernal’s lifetime total to 5. As reported in Bernalwood., 88 Montcalm set a new Bernal Heights record price of $3.85M. This monster house, with 4 bedrooms, 5.5 baths and parking for two cars sold after only 5 days on the market.
We remain bullish that Bernal Heights home prices will continue to increase, but we expect the second half of 2017 to grow somewhat more slowly than the first half. July saw a seasonally slow start, as many buyers and agents took off to enjoy summer vacations. We anticipate an influx of homes to hit the market in September, October, and November, which typically defines the Fall selling season.
Demand in Bernal remains exceptionally high, as homes here are perceived to be a better value for the money than our more expensive neighbors in Potrero Hill, Noe Valley, Glen Park and the Mission. Meanwhile, inventory is fairly fixed as very few new homes are built in Bernal these days. We expect to continue to see multiple offers over asking for well-priced, well-presented properties for the rest of the year.
At some point, we anticipate affordability will cause price growth to stall, but as long as local wages and employment levels continue to show positive gains, Bernal Heights is well positioned as a relatively affordable, well-located, charming neighborhood with great weather to boot. The secret is out.
With Bernalwood’s permission, Neighbors Michael and Danielle have also used our Bernal Heights microhoods map to take a granular look at prices in different areas of Bernal. The result is reflected in this chart of median home prices per square-foot in different parts of Bernal:
IMAGES: Top, aerial view of Bernal Heights by Telstar Logistics. Below, 2017 market graphics by Michael Minson and Danielle Lazier