Campos vs. Chiu: Your Bernal Heights Microhood Voting Analysis for Election 2014

bernal-microhoods-election

Happy Day After Election Day! Today you can savor the clarity of a (mostly) known election outcome and the knowledge that your mailbox will no longer overflow with huge stacks of election-related direct mail. Today, it’s all about the results  — and the punditry about what those results tell us.

On that last score, Bernalwood is very fortunate to have some of the most clever readers in the entire universe. Specifically, we speak here of Neighbor Patrick, who has done us the great service of looking at some key returns from yesterday’s vote through the prism of the Official Guide to the Microhoods of Bernal Heights.

Neighbor Patrick has broken down the results of the David Campos vs. David Chiu contest for the District 17 Californa State Assemby seat by Bernal microhood. He then did the same for Prop E, the Soda Tax measure, to see how it fared here in the Dominion of Bernalwood.

As you probably know, the current citywide election tallies show that David Chiu is on track to defeat Bernal resident and D9 Supervisor David Campos for the State Assembly seat. As MissionLocal reports this morning, though some absentee and provisional ballots remain outstanding, “with all precincts reporting, Chiu held a 2,397-vote lead over Campos in the Assembly race to replace Tom Ammiano.”  (At this writing, Campos has yet to concede.) Meanwhile, the Prop E Soda Tax failed to clear the two-thirds majority it needed to pass.

But how did Campos and Prop E do in Bernal Heights?

For that, let’s go to Neighbor Patrick in the Bernalwood Election 2014 News Center:

I thought I’d do a little digging into the election results and break down voting patterns by Bernal microhood using the Bernalwood map posted on March 18th. I think it’s a little more revealing than the generic “Bernal North” and “Bernal South” designations used by the SF elections department!

I’ve attached charts for the Campos/Chiu vote as well as the Prop E (soda tax) vote as these were the closest races. These are based on the preliminary figures released by SF Elections very early this morning so they may change slightly as provisional ballots are counted.

Note that there isn’t perfect overlap between precinct boundaries and microhood boundaries, but I’ve done my best.

Here are Bernal microhood results for Campos vs. Chiu:

CamposChiuBernal Microhoods

Here’s the Bernal microhood breakdown for Prop E:

PropEBernalMicrohoods

Innnnnteresing, yes? It would appear that the residents of Foggy Vista, on Bernal’s west slope, are the most progressive tribe of all Bernalese. Neighbor Patrick adds:

I guess what jumps out at me is the relative conservatism of St. Mary’s and Alemanistan, and the heterogeneity of the different microhoods. I was very surprised to see St. Mary’s actually vote against Prop E (it was over 50% citywide although that wasn’t enough to make it law). Turnout was pretty even across the board, although Alemanistan was below average at 34%.

There’s lots to ponder and pontificate about in this analysis, which is why the Internet Gods have given us the commenting mechanism. Most of all, though, HUGE thanks to Neighbor Patrick for this terrific piece of analysis.

Fun Fact: Bernal Buys Ridiculous Amounts of Sunscreen

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Bernal Heights is famous throughout the galaxy as being home to many dog-owners, families with kids, and lesbians. So one would think that means we buy lots and lots of dog food, diapers, and Subarus. Yet according to the data-crunchers at Google’s same-day shopping delivery service, the Citizens of Bernalwood actually buy exceptional amounts of… sunscreen:

Some of the most popular items that Bay Area shoppers get with same-day delivery are everyday essentials like toothpaste and toilet paper, as well as heavy or bulky items like canned soup and potting soil. In fact, in a single day, people around the Bay Area buy enough cat food through Google Shopping Express to feed about 1,500 cats! While a lot of people are buying everyday essentials, they’re also using the service to buy some rather unexpected items like Sriracha hot sauce and tennis balls, which are among some of the most popular products ordered.

But not all neighborhoods around the Bay Area are filling their carts with the same items. For instance, in San Francisco, people in Potrero Hill buy more cereal than any other neighborhood, while shoppers in Bernal Heights buy the most sunscreen. People in The Marina love getting protein powder delivered on the double, while Mountain View shoppers buy the most rock climbing gear. And when it comes to same-day spreads, people in San Jose buy more mayonnaise than any other city, while Palo Alto tops the list of Nutella purchases.

Census Visualization Reveals Racial Geography of Bernal Heights

SF.2010census2

Dustin Cable is senior policy researcher and statistician with the Demographics & Workforce Group at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. He recently completed a “Racial Dot Map” that uses data from the 2010 census to illustrate “geographic distribution, population density, and racial diversity of the American people in every neighborhood in the entire country.”

Each dot represents one person, with each race shown in a different color. The result is a vast, visual map that Wired calls “the most comprehensive map of race in America ever created.”

The image above is the racial dot map of San Francisco. The resolution of the interactive version of the dot map is limited, but we can zoom and enhance to get closer look at Bernal Heights:

Bernal.2010census.overlay

Innnnnnnteresting.

There’s an impressive amount of mixing going on here in Bernal, even as there are also some very clear patterns of clustering. What you see here could quite literally be described as a kind of ethno-geographic Rorschach Test.

So shall we discuss? Let’s discuss.

MAPS: via the interactive Racial Dot Map