Your Bernal Heights Residential Real Estate Report: Wintercooled 2017 Edition

bernalaerialfromwest

Michael Minson and Danielle Lazier are longtime Bernal neighbors who work by day as local realtors. In light of their expertise, Bernalwood invited Neighbor Michael and Neighbor Danielle to update us on the state of residential real estate in Bernal Heights. Here’s their analysis:

Bernal Heights Today
Despite another record-breaking year, the Bernal Heights Real Estate market has officially cooled.

In 2016 we saw a modest 5% increase over the previous year’s median home sale price — from $1.3M in 2015 to $1.36M in 2016.  In any other market that would be remnarkable, but this is Bernal, and we’re not like any other market. In fact, this is the third consecutive year we’ve seen slowing growth since 2012, when we experienced a record 23% gain over the previous year.

In context, prices here have nearly doubled since 2011, when the median price to buy a house in Bernal was $699k, believe it or not.

On the high end, Bernal added a new member to the $3M Club in February. 1669 Alabama St sold for $3 million, and it’s the third property in Bernal to sell for $3M or more in the last few years. There were 11 sales in the $2Ms last year, which is slightly more than double 2015, which reported 5 sales.

The Outlook
Barring a major environmental or economic event, our outlook for 2017 is cautiously optimistic.

Demand in Bernal remains strong for all the reasons we love it here:  great weather, ample charm, wonderful views, and a convenient location. Meanwhile, compared to many other parts of the city, Bernal is still relatively affordable. Yet we seem to have a hit a plateau in terms of price appreciation for the time being.

The recent sharp rise for interest rates and the surprise election results shocked many buyers in the last half of 2016, even though interest rates remain roughly on par with where they were in 2014.

Overall, the US economy is performing well, and San Francisco’s economy remains especially strong. As employment and wages grow, so do housing prices. Many home buyers use stock market earnings to make their down payments, so as the stock market rallies, buyers’ buying power does as well.

All told, we expect slower growth to continue until we see another jolt to the economy.

PHOTO: Aerial view of Bernal Heights, as seen from the west. Photo by the Bernalwood Air Force

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